Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     90.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  27.8  28.3  22.8  23.3  26.7  28.6  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  15.0  28.0  21.0  25.0  23.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.5  43.5  51.5  60.1  51.5  53.6  51.5  51.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   2.0   8.0  12.0  31.0  29.0  14.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  38.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  41.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.3%        3.8%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%        6.6%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        4.4%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        4.4%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%        3.9%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 SH112023 230214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     90.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  27.8  28.3  22.8  23.3  26.7  28.6  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  38.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  41.0  42.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%