Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230214 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.30 88.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 82.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 29.3 25.5 26.2 22.9 23.4 25.9 27.7 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 15.0 21.0 33.0 22.0 24.0 20.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 30.5 38.6 42.9 47.3 38.6 38.6 34.4 34.4 VU U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 -6.0 13.0 11.0 38.0 37.0 56.0 19.0 VU U U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 40.0 38.0 40.0 40.0 39.0 45.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -8.0 -5.0 -8.0 -9.0 -13.0 -14.0 -13.0 F F F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 20.5% 4.2% 12.4% 25kt / 24h 5.2% 5.5% 5.4% 30kt / 24h 5.2% 3.3% 4.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.64 SH112023 230214 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.30 88.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 29.3 25.5 26.2 22.9 23.4 25.9 27.7 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 40.0 38.0 40.0 40.0 39.0 45.0 46.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -8.0 -5.0 -8.0 -9.0 -13.0 -14.0 -13.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 7.5% 3.9%