Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230215 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.80 83.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.2 23.8 22.1 18.5 20.0 18.8 20.0 13.7 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 24.0 25.0 23.0 20.0 18.0 18.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 5.0 38.0 14.0 62.0 21.0 27.0 37.0 U U N U N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 39.0 45.0 41.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 39.9% 30.8% 35.4% 25kt / 24h 51.6% 73.3% 62.5% 30kt / 24h 51.6% 73.3% 62.5% 35kt / 24h 51.6% 73.3% 62.5% 40kt / 24h 51.6% 71.0% 61.3% 45kt / 36h 100.0% 34.5% 67.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 17.7% 8.8% 55kt / 48h 14.5% 41.4% 27.9% 70kt / 48h 0.7% 6.2% 3.5% 65kt / 72h 8.1% 10.2% 9.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = -1.60 SH112023 230215 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.80 83.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135.