Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  27.8  23.8  19.7  21.1  22.9  18.2  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  23.0  21.0  25.0  30.0  24.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.3  22.3  20.1  15.7  20.1  24.6  20.1  11.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  51.0  27.0  15.0  40.0   1.0  -3.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  41.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   7.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        0.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 SH112023 230216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  27.8  23.8  19.7  21.1  22.9  18.2  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  41.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  46.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   7.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       18.0%        9.0%