Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230216 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     79.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  18.2  22.0  19.0  18.6  17.2  15.6  15.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  25.0  28.0  31.0  31.0  21.0  23.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.3  30.1  37.0  40.0  40.0  37.0  30.1  37.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  16.0  32.0  40.0  18.0  42.0   4.0  42.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  44.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  53.0  54.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 SH112023 230216 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     79.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  18.2  22.0  19.0  18.6  17.2  15.6  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  44.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  53.0  54.0  57.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       16.8%        8.4%