Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10     78.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.6  18.4  17.5  20.6  15.5  16.7  12.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  29.0  31.0  33.0  26.0  20.0  24.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.1  42.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  37.3  39.6  39.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  17.0  17.0   8.0   0.0  25.0  13.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.4%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        3.0%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.0%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 SH112023 230216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10     78.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.6  18.4  17.5  20.6  15.5  16.7  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  45.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.9%        4.9%