Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230217 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     76.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.1  17.0  15.1  17.0  17.7  14.4  14.7  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  24.0  24.0  22.0  22.0  19.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.0  44.3  42.0  39.6  42.0  39.6  44.3  44.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  28.0  14.0  14.0  36.0  -1.0  30.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  48.0  46.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.9%        4.3%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%        7.2%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%        4.8%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 SH112023 230217 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     76.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.1  17.0  15.1  17.0  17.7  14.4  14.7  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  48.0  46.0  52.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%