Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230217 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60     75.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.2  15.9  20.1  14.5  19.3  12.0  18.0  F  N  F  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  25.0  25.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  17.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  44.3  42.0  42.0  39.6  42.0  42.0  44.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0 -10.0  -7.0  -1.0  24.0  13.0  19.0  10.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  47.0  50.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        2.9%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        4.7%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.1%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.9%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 SH112023 230217 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60     75.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.2  15.9  20.1  14.5  19.3  12.0  18.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  47.0  50.0  51.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.1%        3.5%