Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230217 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     72.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  19.2  17.2  12.4  18.8  15.7  17.0  15.9  F  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  22.0  23.0  22.0  16.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.0  42.0  42.0  39.6  42.0  39.6  44.3  39.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -3.0  14.0  -5.0  -2.0  20.0  26.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   2.0  -3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        2.5%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        3.9%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.6%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 SH112023 230217 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     72.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  19.2  17.2  12.4  18.8  15.7  17.0  15.9  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  46.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   2.0  -3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%