Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230218 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     71.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.0  15.0  17.5  16.2  16.0  14.2  16.9  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  22.0  20.0  19.0  37.0  26.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.0  49.3  47.0  47.0  50.0  50.0  44.6  40.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  27.0  15.0   6.0   3.0 -12.0  30.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  43.0  49.0  51.0  54.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   0.0   7.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.2%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 SH112023 230218 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     71.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.0  15.0  17.5  16.2  16.0  14.2  16.9  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  43.0  49.0  51.0  54.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   0.0   7.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.5%        4.7%