Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230218 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     70.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  13.2  15.5  19.0  15.4  16.0  16.6  15.4  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  20.0  19.0  22.0  34.0  28.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.3  52.0  52.0  54.3  54.3  55.0  45.1  54.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0   5.0 -13.0 -22.0   3.0  32.0  24.0  -4.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  48.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   2.0  -2.0 -10.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.2%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h       19.7%        1.3%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 SH112023 230218 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     70.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  13.2  15.5  19.0  15.4  16.0  16.6  15.4  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  48.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   2.0  -2.0 -10.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.9%        2.9%