Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230218 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     69.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  13.8  16.4  15.1  12.9  14.6  17.4  18.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  37.0  26.0  38.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.0  54.3  55.0  55.0  55.0  49.6  47.3  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -16.0  -9.0  14.0  13.0  59.0  -7.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   7.0   3.0   4.0  -6.0  -9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        3.4%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        7.0%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        5.1%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        5.0%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        4.6%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h       34.5%        4.1%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 SH112023 230218 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     69.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  13.8  16.4  15.1  12.9  14.6  17.4  18.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   7.0   3.0   4.0  -6.0  -9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%