Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230218 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.6  14.3  16.0  17.2  15.0  23.9  26.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  20.0  30.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.3  50.0  50.0  49.3  47.0  37.9  50.0  44.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   5.0  14.0   9.0  45.0   0.0  11.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   8.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%        5.8%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       10.6%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%        8.2%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%        8.2%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%        7.4%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 SH112023 230218 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.6  14.3  16.0  17.2  15.0  23.9  26.9  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   8.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%