Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230219 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.70 67.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 17.6 16.1 16.0 16.6 16.1 26.7 26.8 N F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 19.0 22.0 30.0 21.0 40.0 28.0 55.5 U U U U U N U N Potential [kt] 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 27.0 24.6 30.0 11.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 -4.0 -4.0 15.0 38.0 -15.0 18.0 10.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 47.0 48.0 43.0 45.0 43.0 46.0 U U VU U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 15.0 10.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 28.7% 0.0% 14.4% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.50 SH112023 230219 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.70 67.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 17.6 16.1 16.0 16.6 16.1 26.7 26.8 N N U U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 47.0 48.0 43.0 45.0 43.0 46.0 F F VF F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 15.0 10.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.1% 1.6%