Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230219 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 65.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.0 12.4 12.4 17.4 15.0 21.9 29.4 24.7 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 23.0 30.0 23.0 28.0 27.0 35.0 72.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 15.1 22.0 10.7 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -22.0 -20.0 27.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 18.0 U VU VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 41.0 42.0 43.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 17.0 19.0 -2.0 N N N N U U VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 26.9% 0.0% 13.5% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.54 SH112023 230219 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 65.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.0 12.4 12.4 17.4 15.0 21.9 29.4 24.7 N U U N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 41.0 42.0 43.0 50.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 17.0 19.0 -2.0 N N N N F F VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.4% 1.2%