Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230219 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.40 64.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 15.0 15.6 14.9 15.9 26.1 18.3 17.8 F F F F F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 30.0 22.0 23.0 39.0 29.0 14.0 47.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 34.3 32.0 29.6 35.0 10.5 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 -26.0 -4.0 28.0 2.0 9.0 -9.0 27.0 U VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 45.0 42.0 42.0 39.0 46.0 54.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 7.0 5.0 -4.0 16.0 3.0 2.0 N N N N F U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 1.4% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.9% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 SH112023 230219 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.40 64.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 15.0 15.6 14.9 15.9 26.1 18.3 17.8 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 45.0 42.0 42.0 39.0 46.0 54.0 VF F VF VF VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 7.0 5.0 -4.0 16.0 3.0 2.0 N N N N U F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 6.4% 3.2%