Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70     62.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  19.0  16.4  13.6  19.1  24.8  18.2  15.6  F  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  22.0  23.0  29.0  26.0   4.0  60.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  24.3  22.0  12.9  22.0  10.7  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  21.0  14.0 -11.0   0.0 -23.0   2.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  46.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   9.0  14.0   1.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        0.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 SH112023 230219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70     62.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  19.0  16.4  13.6  19.1  24.8  18.2  15.6  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  46.0  52.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   9.0  14.0   1.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.8%        2.9%