Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230220 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.10 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 17.5 14.2 13.7 20.3 15.7 19.7 17.3 N F F F N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 18.0 28.0 34.0 31.0 14.0 36.0 45.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 29.6 20.7 25.1 32.0 27.3 22.9 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 9.0 -8.0 -5.0 21.0 -11.0 21.0 42.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 47.0 52.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 6.0 0.0 18.0 13.0 -6.0 -1.0 N N N N VU U F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.14 SH112023 230220 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.10 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 17.5 14.2 13.7 20.3 15.7 19.7 17.3 N N U U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 47.0 52.0 57.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 6.0 0.0 18.0 13.0 -6.0 -1.0 N N N N VF F U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 9.7% 4.8%