Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  18.4  17.3  18.1  14.6  15.4  18.6  23.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  39.0  25.0  30.0  16.0  48.0  32.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.1  44.3  45.0  42.0  42.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -28.0 -19.0  -6.0  -7.0  29.0  43.0  58.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  48.0  54.0  62.0  60.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -2.0  13.0  17.0   3.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  F  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 SH112023 230220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  18.4  17.3  18.1  14.6  15.4  18.6  23.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  48.0  54.0  62.0  60.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -2.0  13.0  17.0   3.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  U  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.4%        5.2%