Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230220 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     55.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  20.4  25.0  22.6  11.3  10.9  19.5  29.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  25.0  31.0  32.0  32.0  45.0  31.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.3  44.3  39.6  37.3  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -19.0  -3.0 -27.0   5.0  33.0  11.0  44.0 VU  U  U VU  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  49.0  57.0  55.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   8.0   9.0  11.0   5.0  -3.0  -2.0 -10.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 SH112023 230220 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     55.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  20.4  25.0  22.6  11.3  10.9  19.5  29.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  49.0  57.0  55.0  50.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   8.0   9.0  11.0   5.0  -3.0  -2.0 -10.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       12.9%        6.4%