Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     53.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  25.6  21.2  16.3  18.7  11.7  20.6  25.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  39.0  31.0  46.0  48.0  33.0  14.0  17.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  47.3  49.6  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -16.0   3.0  -3.0  20.0  17.0  37.0  36.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  53.0  50.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  60.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  11.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -9.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.2%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h       17.6%        1.2%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 SH112023 230221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     53.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  25.6  21.2  16.3  18.7  11.7  20.6  25.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  53.0  50.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  60.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  11.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -9.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.9%        4.0%