Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230221 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     49.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  19.1  16.4  21.7  13.2  20.8  23.9  17.1  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  46.0  61.0  14.0  30.0  14.0  24.0  15.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.1  62.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  46.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   0.0   2.0  10.0  29.0  38.0  36.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  48.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  56.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        3.7%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.3%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%        1.7%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 SH112023 230221 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70     49.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  19.1  16.4  21.7  13.2  20.8  23.9  17.1  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  48.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  56.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.0%        3.0%