Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230221 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  16.9  17.4  16.8  20.7  22.3  28.1  19.8  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  61.0  46.0  44.0  19.0  12.0  19.0   7.5  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.3  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  62.9  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0  11.0  36.0  40.0  12.0  31.0  41.0  21.0 VU  U  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0  -7.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        5.4%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%        1.5%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 SH112023 230221 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  16.9  17.4  16.8  20.7  22.3  28.1  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0  -7.0   0.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%