Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10     46.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  16.9  18.6  18.4  25.1  30.7  25.4  17.2  F  F  N  F  N  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.5  47.0  44.0  45.0  21.0  26.0  11.3   0.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  66.6  40.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  31.0  34.0  32.0  43.0  36.0  25.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        0.1%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 SH112023 230222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10     46.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  16.9  18.6  18.4  25.1  30.7  25.4  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%