Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230222 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.60     45.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  16.3  16.3  16.3  20.5  22.1  18.6  21.9  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  42.0  40.0  28.0  21.0  32.0  21.3   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  86.2  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  30.0  25.0  38.0  59.0  34.0  65.0  40.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  57.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0   2.0  12.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       14.2%        0.4%        7.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.00

 SH112023 230222 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.60     45.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  16.3  16.3  16.3  20.5  22.1  18.6  21.9  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  57.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -8.0  -5.0   2.0  12.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%