Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230222 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     43.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  20.0  20.9  24.3  26.2  22.2  25.4  16.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  44.0  29.0  21.0  27.0  23.0  11.5   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 104.4  82.7  73.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  28.0  34.0  44.0  33.0  27.0  17.0  37.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  63.0  65.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   7.0  13.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        0.4%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 SH112023 230222 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     43.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  20.0  20.9  24.3  26.2  22.2  25.4  16.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  63.0  65.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   7.0  13.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%