Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230222 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     42.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  22.3  21.5  24.5  21.6  21.8  24.2  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  29.0  23.0  21.0  26.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 117.4  96.1  93.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  15.0  30.0  26.0  39.0  43.0  11.0  80.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0   5.0  15.0  12.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        3.0%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%        2.6%        5.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 SH112023 230222 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     42.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  22.3  21.5  24.5  21.6  21.8  24.2  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0   5.0  15.0  12.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%