Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     41.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  21.8  25.7  24.9  20.3  25.7  25.7  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  27.0  23.0  23.0  19.0   6.3   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6  89.6  89.6  89.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  20.0  27.0  33.0  51.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0 -11.0 -11.0   2.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        3.8%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       24.0%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       11.1%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       10.4%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       10.4%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       30.3%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.7%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        6.9%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        6.2%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        5.5%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 SH112023 230223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     41.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  21.8  25.7  24.9  20.3  25.7  25.7  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0 -11.0 -11.0   2.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%