Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230223 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     40.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  25.6  25.1  23.6  24.1  25.6  28.7  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  20.0  25.0  32.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 103.5  81.5  78.6  81.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   0.0   8.0  28.0  41.0  16.0  48.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0 -12.0  -7.0   6.0  17.0  13.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.0%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       13.3%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        4.9%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       13.3%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.3%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.8%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        2.1%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 SH112023 230223 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     40.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  25.6  25.1  23.6  24.1  25.6  28.7  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0 -12.0  -7.0   6.0  17.0  13.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%