Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.50     39.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  25.5  25.5  18.8  28.4  21.6  31.5  20.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  21.0  22.0  32.0  15.3   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  79.3  68.6  68.6  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  12.0  29.0  44.0  17.0  39.0  68.0  77.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  59.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -9.0  -5.0  -1.0  12.0   0.0  19.0  -5.0  F  F  F  N  U  N VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        8.3%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       18.1%       37.5%       27.8%
 30kt / 24h       13.9%       22.6%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h       12.0%       22.6%       17.3%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       22.6%       15.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       26.0%       16.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.7%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        1.9%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        3.5%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 SH112023 230223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.50     39.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  25.5  25.5  18.8  28.4  21.6  31.5  20.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  59.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -9.0  -5.0  -1.0  12.0   0.0  19.0  -5.0  U  U  U  N  F  N VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%