Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230223 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     38.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  32.8  27.5  21.0  19.9  24.2  20.7  25.3  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0   8.0  16.0  14.0  14.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 109.3  83.5  72.7  72.7  81.6  89.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  15.0  27.0  35.0  27.0  61.0  37.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  58.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   6.0  10.0   5.0   5.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.8%        9.1%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       15.6%       28.3%       22.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.7%       17.3%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       17.3%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       17.2%       13.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       18.8%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        3.3%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        2.7%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 SH112023 230223 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     38.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  32.8  27.5  21.0  19.9  24.2  20.7  25.3  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  58.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   6.0  10.0   5.0   5.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%