Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230224 18UTC Storm Located at : -22.60 34.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 29.8 28.6 31.0 24.5 29.2 25.4 22.1 N N N U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 21.7 20.3 19.0 16.3 15.0 16.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.2 79.3 79.3 79.3 88.0 88.0 82.7 79.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 29.0 38.0 60.0 47.0 97.0 53.0 88.0 U N N N N F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 57.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 60.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 12.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 SH112023 230224 18UTC Storm Located at : -22.60 34.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.