Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230302 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30     38.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.1  20.0  21.0  20.7  25.9  21.4  23.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  19.0  21.0  22.0  25.0  39.0   8.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  74.0 107.0  92.0  61.0  66.0  23.0  27.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  63.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       12.1%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.6%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       17.0%       10.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h       10.5%        9.6%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        5.9%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h       25.3%       18.0%       21.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 SH112023 230302 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30     38.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.1  20.0  21.0  20.7  25.9  21.4  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  63.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%