Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230303 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00     38.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  16.5  24.6  24.3  25.9  43.1  30.6  23.0  F  F  N  N  N VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  12.0  15.0  17.0  32.0  45.0  35.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 127.9 134.6 139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 136.0  92.0  58.0  75.0  48.0  26.0  16.0  F VF  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  59.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        6.8%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       11.8%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        3.4%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        2.1%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%        7.6%        9.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 SH112023 230303 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00     38.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  16.5  24.6  24.3  25.9  43.1  30.6  23.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  59.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%