Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230303 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     38.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  24.1  23.8  18.4  38.2  33.2  34.1  14.1  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  12.0  16.0  19.0  30.0  38.0  36.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 130.1 137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 107.0  51.0  51.0  88.0  38.0  42.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  44.0  35.0  33.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        6.9%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        9.2%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        2.9%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        1.7%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       19.9%        7.5%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 SH112023 230303 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10     38.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  24.1  23.8  18.4  38.2  33.2  34.1  14.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  44.0  35.0  33.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%