Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230303 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.80     38.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  22.3  22.4  24.4  29.8  35.8  34.0  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  14.0  17.0  22.0  29.0  38.0  40.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 127.3 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0  64.0  49.0  46.0  57.0  50.0  48.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  44.0  40.0  37.0  38.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        9.8%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.9%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       11.3%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        3.8%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        2.3%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h       19.3%        7.3%       13.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 SH112023 230303 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.80     38.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  22.3  22.4  24.4  29.8  35.8  34.0  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  44.0  40.0  37.0  38.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%