Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230303 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00     38.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  21.8  22.6  28.9  27.1  31.5  22.8  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  16.0  19.0  23.0  28.0  32.0  33.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  83.0  94.0  92.0  77.0  62.0  29.0  46.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  46.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -7.0 -11.0 -10.0  -3.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       13.1%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.2%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        4.0%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        4.0%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       16.3%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        6.9%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        4.8%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h       23.9%       15.5%       19.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 SH112023 230303 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.00     38.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  21.8  22.6  28.9  27.1  31.5  22.8  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  46.0  43.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -7.0 -11.0 -10.0  -3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%