Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230304 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     39.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  27.1  36.4  29.8  24.8  30.4  19.5  28.9  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  25.0  30.0  33.0  38.0  38.0  32.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  93.0 114.0  61.0  50.0  -4.0  13.0  -4.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  44.0  37.0  43.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       13.1%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.8%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.2%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.2%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       16.2%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        7.6%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        3.8%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h       19.7%       11.9%       15.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 SH112023 230304 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20     39.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  27.1  36.4  29.8  24.8  30.4  19.5  28.9  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  44.0  37.0  43.0  43.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%