Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230304 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     39.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  34.3  31.7  26.3  32.8  25.4  24.5  21.4  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  22.0  26.0  29.0  31.0  31.0  27.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0 102.0  48.0  26.0  43.0   8.0  12.0   0.0  N  F  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  47.0  42.0  41.0  38.0  38.0  39.0  41.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        8.9%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        9.8%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        4.6%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h       16.1%        8.2%       12.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 SH112023 230304 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     39.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  34.3  31.7  26.3  32.8  25.4  24.5  21.4  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  47.0  42.0  41.0  38.0  38.0  39.0  41.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%