Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230304 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.50     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  31.1  24.3  24.4  30.2  20.8  29.2  22.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  26.0  30.0  33.0  33.0  29.0  21.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 125.0 119.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  43.0  39.0  42.0  24.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  44.0  44.0  38.0  40.0  45.0  45.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.1%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       25.3%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%       11.6%        8.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       11.6%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       11.6%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       22.3%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        9.9%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        5.3%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h       10.1%        9.5%        9.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 SH112023 230304 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.50     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  31.1  24.3  24.4  30.2  20.8  29.2  22.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  44.0  44.0  38.0  40.0  45.0  45.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%