Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230304 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     40.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  24.9  23.7  27.5  21.2  20.7  23.7  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  34.0  35.0  36.0  35.0  32.0  23.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  33.0  21.0  47.0   3.0  17.0 -16.0 -22.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  41.0  47.0  48.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        4.8%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       15.4%       29.2%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%       15.6%       12.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       15.6%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       15.6%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       25.1%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.9%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%       13.9%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        7.0%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.2%       11.6%       10.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 SH112023 230304 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     40.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  24.9  23.7  27.5  21.2  20.7  23.7  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  41.0  47.0  48.0  52.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%