Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230305 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     41.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  22.4  32.2  29.8  18.7  21.1  15.1  28.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  41.0  39.0  28.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  41.0  49.0  -8.0  18.0 -13.0   8.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  49.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        4.3%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       21.4%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       10.5%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       10.3%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       10.3%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       20.0%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.3%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%       11.5%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        4.7%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       11.2%       11.0%       11.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 SH112023 230305 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     41.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  22.4  32.2  29.8  18.7  21.1  15.1  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  49.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%