Rapid Intensification Guidance SH112023 230305 06UTC Storm Located at : -22.90 41.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 29.0 25.9 22.9 23.5 23.8 24.6 30.9 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 30.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 27.0 14.0 5.0 5.0 12.0 -5.0 29.0 N U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 39.0 45.0 56.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -1.0 -4.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 -5.0 F N F N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 2.7% 9.6% 6.1% 30kt / 24h 1.9% 3.7% 2.8% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 3.6% 2.2% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 3.6% 2.1% 45kt / 36h 3.5% 6.8% 5.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 3.2% 4.6% 3.9% 70kt / 48h 2.6% 1.3% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 15.9% 4.2% 10.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 SH112023 230305 06UTC Storm Located at : -22.90 41.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.4 29.0 25.9 22.9 23.5 23.8 24.6 30.9 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 39.0 45.0 56.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -1.0 -4.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 -5.0 U N U N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%