Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230306 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.10     42.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  16.9  15.0  16.5  31.9  27.2  24.4  28.5  F  F  F  F  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  39.0  38.0  36.0  20.0  20.0  39.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 109.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -3.0   5.0  15.0  -5.0  26.0 -16.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  43.0  48.0  46.0  51.0  53.0  54.0 VU VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        6.3%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%       29.0%       19.7%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%       17.3%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.6%       17.3%       12.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       17.3%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       17.7%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.1%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        7.9%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        2.4%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        4.7%        5.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 SH112023 230306 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.10     42.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  16.9  15.0  16.5  31.9  27.2  24.4  28.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  43.0  48.0  46.0  51.0  53.0  54.0 VF VF VF  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%