Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230306 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.00     42.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  17.5  17.5  17.6  30.0  24.9  25.4  20.6  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  41.0  39.0  36.0  21.0  20.0  31.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 112.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0   3.0  18.0  -3.0   7.0  -8.0  14.0  23.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  52.0  56.0  51.0  60.0  61.0  64.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        4.4%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       22.9%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       13.6%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       13.6%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       13.6%        8.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       11.8%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        7.1%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%        4.3%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 SH112023 230306 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.00     42.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  17.5  17.5  17.6  30.0  24.9  25.4  20.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  52.0  56.0  51.0  60.0  61.0  64.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%