Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.00     42.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  15.3  21.0  29.7  27.7  27.5  28.3  22.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  33.0  30.0  19.0  17.0  25.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 102.3  97.9  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0 -10.0   2.0   6.0   5.0 -10.0  30.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  47.0  55.0  50.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  61.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%       10.9%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       33.3%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       23.7%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h        8.4%       23.7%       16.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       23.5%       14.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       16.5%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.3%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        7.7%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        3.5%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 SH112023 230307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.00     42.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  15.3  21.0  29.7  27.7  27.5  28.3  22.9  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  47.0  55.0  50.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  61.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%