Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230307 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.40     42.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  23.5  31.9  32.3  27.3  29.5  25.4  21.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  32.0  27.0  21.0  15.0  32.0  36.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  97.3  92.9  90.7  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -18.0  10.0   8.0  -7.0  23.0  40.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.7%       11.7%       13.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.2%       25.2%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h       13.2%       16.8%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%       16.8%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        9.7%       16.8%       13.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       11.1%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        4.1%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 SH112023 230307 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.40     42.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  23.5  31.9  32.3  27.3  29.5  25.4  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%