Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.00     42.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  29.2  33.8  30.3  26.7  33.2  23.0  22.4  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  28.0  22.0  17.0  17.0  33.0  26.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  70.1  67.9  63.6  59.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  -9.0   7.0  28.0 -13.0  13.0   9.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  49.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  58.0  63.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.9%       20.5%       38.2%
 25kt / 24h       28.6%       26.8%       27.7%
 30kt / 24h       28.6%       21.4%       25.0%
 35kt / 24h       28.6%       21.4%       25.0%
 40kt / 24h       28.6%       21.4%       25.0%
 45kt / 36h       21.4%       10.3%       15.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 SH112023 230307 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.00     42.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  29.2  33.8  30.3  26.7  33.2  23.0  22.4  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  49.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  58.0  63.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%