Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230307 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  32.7  32.9  26.4  31.3  29.0  23.1  16.4  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  23.0  18.0  15.0  18.0  33.0  25.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  69.3  67.0  62.3  57.9  57.9  53.6  51.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   8.0   3.0 -20.0   7.0  26.0   8.0  40.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  47.0  50.0  51.0  58.0  64.0  68.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.7%        8.4%       19.0%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       11.1%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%        7.1%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h       10.8%        7.1%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h       10.1%        7.1%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h       15.7%        4.0%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 SH112023 230307 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.80     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  32.7  32.9  26.4  31.3  29.0  23.1  16.4  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  47.0  50.0  51.0  58.0  64.0  68.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%