Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230308 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.70     40.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  23.8  29.3  29.1  25.5  20.4  18.7  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  11.0  14.0  25.0  25.0  15.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.6  46.5  46.5  46.5  48.6  48.6  48.6  48.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -24.0 -18.0 -10.0  19.0   2.0  36.0  42.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  60.0  64.0  68.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        1.2%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        1.5%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        0.7%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH112023 230308 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.70     40.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  23.8  29.3  29.1  25.5  20.4  18.7  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  60.0  64.0  68.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%